Ethereum has formed lower highs and lower lows to trade inside a descending channel on its 1-hour chart. Price is currently testing support and might be due for a pullback to the top.
Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the channel resistance near the $500 major psychological resistance. This also coincides with the 200 SMA dynamic inflection point.
Speaking of moving averages, the 100 SMA crossed below the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the downside. In other words, the selloff is more likely to resume than to reverse. The 100 SMA lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level to add to its strength as resistance also.
RSI is still on the move up, which suggests that there’s still some bullish pressure left to spur a higher correction. But if sellers are eager to return, the 38.2% Fib could be enough to hold as resistance around the mid-channel area of interest.
Either way, ethereum could find itself sliding back to support at the swing low or the bottom of the channel closer to the $400 mark. Stochastic is already turning south after hitting overbought levels to signal bullish exhaustion.
Cryptocurrencies are still on shaky footing even with last week’s set of positive updates, indicating that investors are being extra cautious and quick to book gains. Still, many can’t help but worry that the resurgence of security incidents in the past weeks could lead regulators to be stricter in oversight.
To top it off, risk aversion stemming from persistent trade tensions are also weighing on demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Instead, traders have shown preference for safe-haven lower-yielding assets like bonds and the US dollar.
Looking ahead, it would take a very strong positive catalyst to sustain a bounce from ethereum and its peers. Without one, the ongoing downtrend could persist.