Monero was previously trending lower inside a descending channel on its longer-term time frames before making an upside break that now seems to be sustained. Price also completed its pullback to the broken resistance and is now forming a smaller rising channel.
Price is currently testing the resistance of this short-term ascending channel and may be due for a correction to support. Applying the Fibonacci retracement tool on the latest swing low and high shows that the 61.8% level lines up with the bottom at $125 while the 38.2% Fib is closer to the mid-channel area of interest at $132.40.
The 100 SMA is holding its head above the longer-term 200 SMA to indicate that the path of least resistance is to the upside. This means that the uptrend is more likely to resume than to reverse. In addition, the moving averages are close to the middle of the channel, serving as dynamic inflection points on a correction.
RSI appears to have some room to fall, though, so Monero might still follow suit. On the other hand, stochastic is starting to pull up from oversold conditions to signal that bullish pressure is returning. A break below the short-term channel bottom, however, could mean that long-term bearish momentum is in play.
Cryptocurrencies have been off to a good start this quarter as investors remain optimistic that the industry could turn a corner and end stronger this year. So far, there have been no negative headlines and it appears that regulatory efforts are increasing trust in the industry after all.
Also, ongoing trade tensions are drawing traders away from stocks and commodities which would be more vulnerable to repercussions to global growth. Traders seeking higher returns on riskier assets could put their funds in the likes of bitcoin and Monero instead, especially as the dollar faces two major event risks (FOMC minutes and NFP report) later this week.